If you’ve ever tried betting on the Golden State Warriors, you know it’s not always as smooth as a Steph Curry step-back three. Some nights, they’ll torch a top-seeded team by 25. Other nights? They’ll lose to a rebuilding squad while you stare blankly at your betting slip, wondering what just happened.
So let’s dig in. Over the past five seasons, how have the Warriors actually performed against the spread (ATS)? Is there a pattern worth knowing, or is backing the Dubs a glorified coin flip?
First Off: What Even Is the Spread?
In case you’re new to this: betting against the spread isn’t about picking winners and losers. It’s about beating expectations:
- If the Warriors are 6.5-point favorites, they need to win by at least 7 for your bet to hit.
- If they’re 3.5-point underdogs, they can lose by 3 or fewer, or pull off the win, and you’re in the money.
Basically, it’s the bookies’ way of leveling the playing field.
The 5-Season Snapshot: Middling Returns
Here’s how Golden State stacked up over the past five years (including the current 2024–25 season as of early June):
- 2020–21: 37–35–0 ATS
- 2021–22: 41–39–2 ATS
- 2022–23: 38–42–2 ATS
- 2023–24: 44–38–0 ATS
- 2024–25: 46–46–3 ATS
Translation? The Warriors have hovered right around the break-even point. There’s no major trend screaming “fade” or “ride the wave.” Just a team that, like most public favorites, often sees inflated spreads – and sometimes struggles to live up to them.
Home vs. Away: Big Difference
Here’s where things get interesting. At home – especially at Chase Center – they tend to punch above their weight. Maybe it’s the crowd, maybe it’s the familiar hardwood, maybe it’s just West Coast confidence. Whatever it is, they usually perform better (and cover more often) in San Francisco.
On the road? Let’s just say the vibes don’t always travel. The 2022–23 season was a perfect case study: a team with championship DNA, but one of the worst road records in the league. And yes, it showed up in their ATS performance too.
What Influences The Numbers?
Several factors quietly move the needle when it comes to betting on Golden State:
- Injuries: When Curry sits, the spread shrinks – but the risk grows. Same goes for Klay, Draymond, and (increasingly) Kuminga.
- Back-to-back games: The Dubs have been known to rest stars or slow the pace on the second night of a back-to-back. Watch the schedule closely.
- Public bias: Golden State is still a marquee team. That means spreads can be inflated because bookmakers know casual fans will bet on them anyway.
Live Betting? Worth a Look
The Warriors love third-quarter runs. You’ve seen it – sluggish first half, then boom, an avalanche of threes. If you’re into in-game betting, that third quarter window can be a sweet spot for spreads, totals, and momentum-based props.
Bottom Line: It’s Not About Blind Faith
Betting on Golden State shouldn’t be about loyalty. It should be about context. Look at the opponent, check the injury report, note whether they’re playing at home or in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back with half the squad on ice.
And remember, even if you bleed blue and gold, sometimes the smart move is skipping the bet – or fading them if the numbers say so. Emotional bets are the fast track to losing streaks and buyer’s remorse.
Wrap-Up: Bet Like a Fan Who Reads the Stats
The Warriors are fun to watch. That’s never been in question. But betting on them? That’s a different beast. Over the past five seasons, they’ve been consistent only in their inconsistency against the spread.
So take the time. Dig into the matchup. Use the numbers to your advantage. Because whether they cover or collapse, one thing’s for sure: Golden State will always keep it interesting.
Isn’t that why we love them?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice. Always gamble responsibly.